Warrior Met Coal's Q2 Earnings: Record Volumes, a Beat and Raise, and a Stock That's Actually Cheap
Numbers below are current as of the evening of August 5, 2026, right after the call. Warrior reported results after the market closed, so prices are still moving.
What Is This Article About
Warrior Met Coal reported its second quarter 2026 earnings today. I'll cover what was said on the call, what went right, what went wrong, then do the math on the valuation. I'll end with my own take on whether it's worth buying. This is not financial advice, just my own reading of the numbers.
What Was Discussed in the Q2 2026 Call
Here are the numbers:
1) Revenue: $509.7 million. Up 71% from $297.5 million last year. Ahead of the $488.5 million analysts expected.2) Net income: $87.4 million, or $1.65 per share. Beat the $1.61 estimate. Way up from $5.6 million, or $0.11 a share, last year.
3) Adjusted EBITDA: $156.9 million. Up 193% from $53.6 million last year.
4) Coal sold: a record 3.7 million short tons. Up 65% from last year. Fourth straight quarter of record sales.
5) Coal produced: 3.3 million tons. Up 45%.
6) Cash cost per ton: $92.53. Down 9%.
7) Cash margin per ton: $45.29. Up 57% from $28.84 last year.
8) Free cash flow: $103.4 million. Last year this same number was negative $56.7 million.
CEO Walt Scheller said Blue Creek, the mine Warrior spent years and over a billion dollars building, is now fully operational. The heavy construction spending is done. Management raised full-year volume guidance, now expecting 13.0 to 14.0 million tons of coal sales, up from the prior range of 12.5 to 13.5 million. The board also kept the quarterly dividend at $0.08 a share.
What Are the Wins
Revenue and earnings both beat estimates by a wide margin. Here's the short version:
1) Adjusted EBITDA: up 193%, to $156.9 million.2) Cash margin per ton: up 57%, to $45.29.
3) Free cash flow: turned positive, $103.4 million. It was negative a year ago.
4) Sales volumes: record for the fourth straight quarter.
5) Full-year guidance: raised for both sales and production.
The balance sheet is also a real strength here:
1) Cash: $302.3 million.2) Long-term debt: $154.6 million.
3) That's a net cash position, not net debt.
4) Total liquidity: $452.9 million.
5) Quarterly capex: fell to $18.3 million, from $94.3 million a year ago, now that Blue Creek is built.
6) Dividend: kept in place the whole time.
What Are the Losses
Not everything in this report was clean.
Price realization: Warrior captured only 66% of the benchmark Platts Premium Low Vol index price. A year ago that was 80%.Why: more of what Warrior sold this quarter was lower-grade High Vol A coal, shipped into the Pacific Basin at higher freight costs.
In plain terms: the company sold more coal, but a smaller share of each benchmark dollar made it into Warrior's pocket.
Zoom out and last year is a good reminder of how fast this business can turn:
1) Full-year 2025 net income: just $57 million.2) Full-year 2024 net income: $250.6 million.
3) Six-month 2026 free cash flow: only $11.5 million, because the first quarter still carried heavy Blue Creek completion spending.
Analysis
Trailing P/E:
1) Last four quarters, net income: about $219.7 million.2) Last four quarters, revenue: $1.68 billion.
3) That works out to roughly $4.16 per diluted share.
4) At the after-hours price of $85.40, trailing P/E is about 20.5x.
That's a reasonable multiple, and it's inflated by a rough 2025.
Forward P/E:
1) Analyst estimates for full-year 2026 EPS range from about $6.27 to $8.80.2) Recent revisions are trending toward the higher end as Blue Creek ramps up.
3) Using a rough midpoint of $7.50, forward P/E works out to about 11.4x.
4) For comparison, SpaceX traded at roughly 190x forward earnings after its own first report.
Price-to-sales:
1) Market cap: about $4.5 billion.2) Trailing revenue: $1.68 billion.
3) That's roughly 2.7x sales, a normal multiple for an industrial commodity producer. SpaceX traded at 81x.
For context on scale:
Global metallurgical coal market: about $130 billion a year.World steel production in 2025: about 1.85 billion tonnes.
Seaborne met coal trade: roughly 345 to 351 million tonnes a year.
Warrior sold 3.7 million tons in this single quarter. A small player globally, but one of the lowest-cost ones.
What Did I Understand From Today's Call
Blue Creek went from being a multi-year cash drain to an actual profit and cash flow contributor, exactly as management said it would.
1) EBITDA: nearly tripled.2) Cash margins: up 57%.
Is This a Good Company to Invest in Right Now
As a company, Warrior looks genuinely well run. It's a low-cost producer with a strong balance sheet, a newly completed growth project that's now paying off, and management that just raised guidance instead of walking it back. The net cash position stands out.
As a stock, you're not overpaying for perfection here. You're taking on real commodity risk. Met coal prices swing with global steel demand and Chinese trade policy. Last year's results show how fast this business can turn:
1) 2024 net income: $250.6 million.2) 2025 net income: $57 million.
Final Thoughts on Whether to Invest or Not
If you already own this stock, today's numbers back up the Blue Creek investment thesis. The mine is built, it's profitable, and the free cash flow is showing up on the balance sheet now instead of getting spent on construction.
If you're thinking about buying in fresh, you're not paying a story premium the way you would with SpaceX. You're paying a fair, arguably cheap, multiple for a well-run coal miner that just had its best operating quarter in years. The risk isn't the price you're paying, it's the commodity underneath it. Met coal prices can move against you fast, and this company's results will move right along with them.
Personally, I'd put this as reasonably priced, cyclical bet on a company that just proved its big growth project works. I'd want to see the price realization number stabilize and get a read on how China's import demand shakes out before sizing up, but this is a name I'd actually be comfortable starting a small position in rather than watching from the sidelines right now!
Disclaimer:
I am not a financial advisor. This article is based on publicly available earnings data and my own personal analysis and views. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research or talk to a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
(edited)Warrior Met Coal's Q2 Earnings: Record Volumes, a Beat and Raise, and a Stock That's Actually Cheap
Numbers below are current as of the evening of August 5, 2026, right after the call. Warrior reported results after the market closed, so prices are still moving.
What Is This Article About
Warrior Met Coal reported its second quarter 2026 earnings today. I'll cover what was said on the call, what went right, what went wrong, then do the math on the valuation. I'll end with my own take on whether it's worth buying. This is not financial advice, just my own reading of the numbers.
What Was Discussed in the Q2 2026 Call
Here are the numbers:
1) Revenue: $509.7 million. Up 71% from $297.5 million last year. Ahead of the $488.5 million analysts expected.2) Net income: $87.4 million, or $1.65 per share. Beat the $1.61 estimate. Way up from $5.6 million, or $0.11 a share, last year.
3) Adjusted EBITDA: $156.9 million. Up 193% from $53.6 million last year.
4) Coal sold: a record 3.7 million short tons. Up 65% from last year. Fourth straight quarter of record sales.
5) Coal produced: 3.3 million tons. Up 45%.
6) Cash cost per ton: $92.53. Down 9%.
7) Cash margin per ton: $45.29. Up 57% from $28.84 last year.
8) Free cash flow: $103.4 million. Last year this same number was negative $56.7 million.
CEO Walt Scheller said Blue Creek, the mine Warrior spent years and over a billion dollars building, is now fully operational. The heavy construction spending is done. Management raised full-year volume guidance, now expecting 13.0 to 14.0 million tons of coal sales, up from the prior range of 12.5 to 13.5 million. The board also kept the quarterly dividend at $0.08 a share.
What Are the Wins
Revenue and earnings both beat estimates by a wide margin. Here's the short version:
1) Adjusted EBITDA: up 193%, to $156.9 million.2) Cash margin per ton: up 57%, to $45.29.
3) Free cash flow: turned positive, $103.4 million. It was negative a year ago.
4) Sales volumes: record for the fourth straight quarter.
5) Full-year guidance: raised for both sales and production.
The balance sheet is also a real strength here:
1) Cash: $302.3 million.2) Long-term debt: $154.6 million.
3) That's a net cash position, not net debt.
4) Total liquidity: $452.9 million.
5) Quarterly capex: fell to $18.3 million, from $94.3 million a year ago, now that Blue Creek is built.
6) Dividend: kept in place the whole time.
What Are the Losses
Not everything in this report was clean.
Price realization: Warrior captured only 66% of the benchmark Platts Premium Low Vol index price. A year ago that was 80%.Why: more of what Warrior sold this quarter was lower-grade High Vol A coal, shipped into the Pacific Basin at higher freight costs.
In plain terms: the company sold more coal, but a smaller share of each benchmark dollar made it into Warrior's pocket.
Zoom out and last year is a good reminder of how fast this business can turn:
1) Full-year 2025 net income: just $57 million.2) Full-year 2024 net income: $250.6 million.
3) Six-month 2026 free cash flow: only $11.5 million, because the first quarter still carried heavy Blue Creek completion spending.
Analysis
Trailing P/E:
1) Last four quarters, net income: about $219.7 million.2) Last four quarters, revenue: $1.68 billion.
3) That works out to roughly $4.16 per diluted share.
4) At the after-hours price of $85.40, trailing P/E is about 20.5x.
That's a reasonable multiple, and it's inflated by a rough 2025.
Forward P/E:
1) Analyst estimates for full-year 2026 EPS range from about $6.27 to $8.80.2) Recent revisions are trending toward the higher end as Blue Creek ramps up.
3) Using a rough midpoint of $7.50, forward P/E works out to about 11.4x.
4) For comparison, SpaceX traded at roughly 190x forward earnings after its own first report.
Price-to-sales:
1) Market cap: about $4.5 billion.2) Trailing revenue: $1.68 billion.
3) That's roughly 2.7x sales, a normal multiple for an industrial commodity producer. SpaceX traded at 81x.
For context on scale:
Global metallurgical coal market: about $130 billion a year.World steel production in 2025: about 1.85 billion tonnes.
Seaborne met coal trade: roughly 345 to 351 million tonnes a year.
Warrior sold 3.7 million tons in this single quarter. A small player globally, but one of the lowest-cost ones.
What Did I Understand From Today's Call
Blue Creek went from being a multi-year cash drain to an actual profit and cash flow contributor, exactly as management said it would.
1) EBITDA: nearly tripled.2) Cash margins: up 57%.
Is This a Good Company to Invest in Right Now
As a company, Warrior looks genuinely well run. It's a low-cost producer with a strong balance sheet, a newly completed growth project that's now paying off, and management that just raised guidance instead of walking it back. The net cash position stands out.
As a stock, you're not overpaying for perfection here. You're taking on real commodity risk. Met coal prices swing with global steel demand and Chinese trade policy. Last year's results show how fast this business can turn:
1) 2024 net income: $250.6 million.2) 2025 net income: $57 million.
Final Thoughts on Whether to Invest or Not
If you already own this stock, today's numbers back up the Blue Creek investment thesis. The mine is built, it's profitable, and the free cash flow is showing up on the balance sheet now instead of getting spent on construction.
If you're thinking about buying in fresh, you're not paying a story premium the way you would with SpaceX. You're paying a fair, arguably cheap, multiple for a well-run coal miner that just had its best operating quarter in years. The risk isn't the price you're paying, it's the commodity underneath it. Met coal prices can move against you fast, and this company's results will move right along with them.
Personally, I'd put this as reasonably priced, cyclical bet on a company that just proved its big growth project works. I'd want to see the price realization number stabilize and get a read on how China's import demand shakes out before sizing up, but this is a name I'd actually be comfortable starting a small position in rather than watching from the sidelines right now!
Disclaimer:
I am not a financial advisor. This article is based on publicly available earnings data and my own personal analysis and views. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research or talk to a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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