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I just shipped the biggest thing I've built on thougTH since launch: Cults. This post explains what a Cult is, what you can do inside one, and how to start your own.

A Cult is a community built around one shared obsession. Not a general chat room for everything, a space for one specific thing: a show, a team, a hobby, an idea, whatever it is you and a group of people can't stop talking about.

You can start one in a few minutes. Give it a name, a symbol or a picture, decide who gets in, and it's live.

Analyzing Stock for Company: Nucor Corporation

Summary:

The largest U.S. steel producer, using electric-arc mini-mills, downstream steel products and raw-material operations. About 86 years from the company’s 1940 predecessor; steel focus developed in the 1960s. Excellent cyclical operator; buy only when mid-cycle earnings, not peak earnings, provide a margin of safety. 

Latest standardized data show 

1) assets of $36,954M, 

2) debt of $7,099M, 

3) book value of $22,109M, 

4) trailing free cash flow of $1,583M and 

5) trailing earnings of $2,884M. 

6) The reported P/E is 21.7x. 

The latest reference price used in this report is $272.33, versus a conservative industry-specific fair-value reference of $133.56. From FY2021-FY2025, standardized cash-flow statements show approximately $2,566M of common dividends/distributions and $10,781M of gross common-share repurchases.

Business Model

Nucor buys scrap and other metallic inputs, melts them in electric-arc furnaces, rolls the steel into sheet, plate, bar and structural products, and increasingly fabricates downstream products such as joists, decking and rebar. Mini-mills can start and stop more flexibly than traditional blast furnaces, lowering fixed-cost exposure. Downstream operations capture additional margin and provide demand visibility, while recycling and raw-material assets secure feedstock.

Bull Case

Nucor combines commodity exposure with an unusually durable operating culture. Its variable-cost mini-mills, national footprint and investment-grade balance sheet allow it to remain profitable and invest when weaker competitors retreat.

 Latest Q2 2026

 1) net sales were about $10.4 billion 

2)  adjusted EBITDA roughly $2.0 billion. 

From 2021 through 2025 the company returned approximately $13.5 billion through dividends and gross buybacks. Domestic infrastructure, reshoring, data-center construction and trade barriers can support utilization for years.

Bear Case

Steel remains cyclical. New capacity built during good years can create oversupply just as construction and manufacturing weaken. Tariffs may lift domestic prices but also encourage imports, substitution or political reversal. Peak-cycle earnings make the stock look cheapest when normalized value may be least attractive. Downstream acquisitions can dilute returns if Nucor pays peak multiples to smooth a fundamentally cyclical business.

Risks

Scrap spreads, energy prices, plant outages, construction demand, auto production, trade policy and environmental regulation drive results. Electric-arc furnaces reduce carbon intensity but still require large power supplies. A severe recession can collapse steel prices faster than input costs. Capital allocation is another risk because the company has committed billions to growth projects whose returns depend on future utilization.

Reward

Nucor can gain share across cycles because it enters downturns with liquidity, keeps skilled teams and buys or builds assets when competitors are constrained. Essential domestic steel capacity also has strategic value. If the company earns mid-cycle returns on recent investments, dividends and buybacks can convert operating resilience into per-share compounding.

Latest Results Check

Q2 2026: 

1) Net sales $10.397B; 

2) net earnings $1.16B, 

3) or $5.04/share; 

4) adjusted earnings $1.11B, or $4.84/share; 

5) EBITDA about $2.0B. 

Wins: 

Record steel-mill shipments, stronger pricing and infrastructure demand; balance-sheet liquidity remained substantial.

Concerns: 

Steel prices and earnings are cyclical; current policy support and outages may flatter near-term margins.

My Take

This is one of the best businesses in a difficult industry. I would not value it using the latest quarter multiplied by a normal market P/E. A more sensible approach is roughly 12 to 14 times normalized cycle earnings, adjusted for excess cash and project spending. My buying signal would be a price supported by recession-level earnings and replacement value, not enthusiasm about current steel spreads.

Disclaimer

This is analysis based on my opinion and is not financial advice. Figures can be restated, standardized data can differ from company-defined measures, and fair value depends on assumptions that may be wrong. Verify the latest filing, debt and share count, industry conditions and tax treatment before acting. 

Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/cricket/india-vs-sri-lanka-live-score-1st-test-match-today-scorecard-squad-live-streaming-records-galle-international-stadium-weather-report-rain-forecast-prediction-highlights-latest-cricket-news/liveblog/133268903.cms                                                        India vs Sri Lanka 1st Test (Galle): Padikkal’s 167, Galle Turn, and Why India Holds All the Cards

Numbers below are current as of Day 2 Stumps, August 16, 2026.

What Is This Article About

India and Sri Lanka are facing off in the 1st Test at the Galle International Cricket Stadium. With the transition into a younger Test core under Shubman Gill, this match tests India's batting discipline against Sri Lanka's spin attack in testing subcontinental conditions. I'll break down the state of play, look at key performances, highlight potential trouble areas, and analyze how the pitch might behave going into Day 3.

What Happened on Day 1 & 2

Here are the key numbers from India's first innings:

India 1st Innings: 460/9 after 116 overs (Run Rate: 3.97).

Top Scorers: Devdutt Padikkal (167 off 230 balls), KL Rahul (82 off 175 balls), Dhruv Jurel (51 off 68 balls).

Sri Lanka Bowling: Prabath Jayasuriya (4/109 in 39 overs), Keshara Nuwantha (3/175 in 39 overs), Asitha Fernando (1/61).

After winning the toss and electing to bat on a dry surface, India capitalized on prime batting conditions before Galle started offering turn. Padikkal anchored the innings with a composed century, allowing the lower middle order to play freely and push the total past 450.

What Are the Wins

Batting Depth & Composure: Devdutt Padikkal’s 167 gave India a massive cushion, while half-centuries from KL Rahul and Dhruv Jurel ensured partnerships never stalled.

Scoring Rate: Operating at nearly 4 runs per over put Sri Lanka’s bowlers under continuous pressure and dictated the game's tempo.

Spin Leverage: Putting 460 on the board means India's spin trio (Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, Manav Suthar) can attack with aggressive close-in fielders from ball one.

What Are the Concerns

Middle-Order Soft Dismissals: Both Shubman Gill (16) and Rishabh Pant (39) got starts against the new ball but failed to convert into big knocks before Jayasuriya found bite off the pitch.

Fast-Deteriorating Surface: Galle is notorious for breaking up rapidly from Day 3 onwards; batting fourth here would be treacherous if Sri Lanka manages a resilient first innings.

Analysis

Match Position & Win Probabilities:

India Win Probability: ~52%

Draw Probability: ~45%

Sri Lanka Win Probability: ~3%

Tactical Matchup:

Sri Lanka bowled 78 overs of spin out of 116 in the first innings. The pitch is already showing variable bounce and sharp turn out of the rough. Sri Lanka’s top order (Nishan Madushka, Dinesh Chandimal, Kamindu Mendis) will face immediate test against Kuldeep Yadav’s wrist spin and Jadeja’s relentless accuracy.

Is India in Full Control Right Now

Yes. In subcontinental Test cricket, any first-innings score above 400 is considered a match-winning benchmark. Sri Lanka must bat for at least five to six sessions just to avoid following on, while India only needs 20 good deliveries across the next three days to seal the game.

Final Thoughts on How the Match Unfolds

I expect India to declare early on Day 3 or wrap up the remaining wicket quickly, unleashing the spinners immediately. Unless Sri Lanka produces two extraordinary individual hundreds, India should be able to enforce massive first-innings pressure and dictate the final outcome.

Disclaimer:

This post is based on match data up to Day 2 Stumps and represents personal cricketing analysis and opinion. Match situations in Test cricket can evolve quickly depending on weather and session momentum.

Analyzing Stock for Company: Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) 

Summary

A master limited partnership producing coal in the eastern United States and owning oil, gas and mineral royalty interests. About 55 years; predecessor operations began in 1971. Potential income value, not a classic forever compounder; require a high yield and conservative commodity assumptions. 

Latest standardized data show:

1)  assets of $2,942M, 

2) debt of $591M, 

3) book value of $1,769M, 

4) trailing free cash flow of $-257M and 

5) trailing earnings of $266M. 

The reported P/E is 12.2x. The latest reference price used in this article is $24.86, versus a conservative industry-specific fair-value reference of $20.76. 

From FY2021-FY2025, standardized cash-flow statements show approximately $1,314M of common dividends/distributions and $19M of gross common-share repurchases.

Business Model

Alliance Resource Partners is a publicly traded master limited partnership. It mines thermal coal primarily in the Illinois Basin and Appalachia, sells much of that output under contracts to electric utilities, and owns mineral and royalty interests that collect revenue without bearing all drilling costs. Cash available after mine operating costs, maintenance capital, interest and working capital funds quarterly distributions, growth projects and occasional unit repurchases. Because it is an MLP, investors receive partnership tax reporting rather than a conventional corporate dividend statement.

Bull Case

ARLP's advantage is cost and customer proximity rather than a consumer brand. Long-lived mines near domestic power plants lower delivered cost, while contracted tons can stabilize volumes compared with fully spot-exposed producers. The royalty portfolio adds a less capital-intensive stream. Latest 2026 figures show roughly $552 million of quarterly revenue, about $80 million of net income and $165 million of adjusted EBITDA; standardized 2021-2025 data indicate about $1.3 billion of distributions. At a sufficiently high distributable-cash yield, investors are paid heavily while waiting.

Bear Case

Thermal coal is not a fifty-year certainty simply because ARLP has operated for decades. Utilities continue retiring coal plants, environmental compliance raises customer costs, and cheap natural gas or subsidized renewables can reduce dispatch. Contract protection eventually rolls off. The partnership may appear optically cheap on a P/E basis just before prices, volumes or margins reset lower, which is the classic commodity-value trap.

Risks

Mine accidents, roof falls, methane, flooding, labor availability, rail interruptions and environmental liabilities can interrupt production. A warm winter or recession can reduce electricity demand. Customer concentration matters because a utility closure can strand reserves. MLP distributions are discretionary, commodity-linked and tax complex; leverage and reclamation obligations must be evaluated alongside stated debt.

Reward

If U.S. electricity demand rises from data centers and grid reliability keeps existing coal plants running longer, ARLP can harvest mature mines while royalty cash diversifies the decline. Scarcity can also improve contract pricing because replacement mines are difficult to permit and finance. The reward is primarily high cash yield plus disciplined runoff—not Visa-like perpetual compounding.

Latest Results Check

Q2 2026:

1) Revenue $551.6M; 

2) net income attributable to ARLP $79.6M, or $0.61/unit;

3) adjusted EBITDA $185.7M, up 14.7% YoY; 

4) quarterly distribution $0.60/unit. 

Wins: 

1) Record oil-and-gas royalty revenue, stronger coal volumes and lower unit costs improved EBITDA. 

Concerns: 

1) Thermal-coal pricing and long-term demand remain uncertain;

2) capital spending and commodity swings can make headline yield misleading.

My Take

I would classify ARLP as an income and asset-harvest investment, not a classic Buffett compounder. I would value it on normalized distributable cash flow after maintenance capital and demand at least a high-teens cash yield or roughly seven times conservative free cash flow. The key diligence items are contracted tons, customer plant-retirement schedules, maintenance capital, reclamation liabilities and distribution coverage.

Disclaimer

This is analysis based on my opinion and is not financial advice. Figures can be restated, standardized data can differ from company-defined measures, and fair value depends on assumptions that may be wrong. Verify the latest filing, debt and share count, industry conditions and tax treatment before acting. Past free cash flow, dividends or buybacks do not guarantee future results.

Analyzing Stock for Company: Markel Group (MKL) 

Summary 

A specialty-insurance-led holding company. Insurance underwriting and float fund a portfolio of public securities and wholly owned operating businesses. About 96 years; insurance roots date to 1930. High-quality compounder candidate, but only attractive with a margin of safety to normalized book and operating value. 

Latest standardized data show

1)  assets of $71,263M

2) debt of $4,368M

3) book value of $19,006M

4) trailing free cash flow of $2,118M 

5) trailing earnings of $2,285M

The reported P/E is 10.2x. The latest reference price used in this article is $1,836.38, versus a conservative industry-specific fair-value reference of $1,890.88. From FY2021-FY2025, standardized cash-flow statements show approximately $0M of common dividends/distributions and $1,945M of gross common-share repurchases.

Business Model

Markel has three economic engines. Insurance collects premiums today and pays claims later, creating float that can be invested. The investment portfolio earns interest, dividends and capital gains on that float and shareholders' equity. Markel Ventures owns a decentralized collection of industrial, service and consumer businesses whose cash can be retained and redeployed. The model resembles a smaller Berkshire Hathaway, but underwriting discipline is the load-bearing wall: float is valuable only when the combined ratio stays below 100 over a full cycle.

Bull Case

The strongest argument is the compounding architecture. 

1) Book value per share rose from about $1,297 in 2024 to roughly $1,513 on the latest 2026 balance-sheet data, 

2) while debt remained near $4.3 billion and annual free cash flow stayed above $2.1 billion. 

3) Q2 2026 adjusted operating income increased about 40% to $376 million and the combined ratio was approximately 93%, 

meaning underwriting produced a profit before investment income. Markel also repurchased about $2.0 billion of stock from 2021 through 2025, an intelligent use of capital when shares trade below management's estimate of intrinsic value.

Bear Case

The Berkshire comparison can make investors overlook Markel's weaker parts. Insurance results can change abruptly after hurricanes, liability inflation or reserve revisions, and reported net income is noisy because public securities move through earnings. Markel Ventures is diversified but contains economically sensitive businesses, so a recession can weaken operating companies at the same time that investment values fall. The company is also more dependent on a small group of capital allocators than a plain insurer would be.

Risks

The sharpest risks are underpriced insurance, adverse reserve development, catastrophe concentration, investment losses and acquisition mistakes inside Markel Ventures. Social inflation can push claim severity higher years after policies were written. Credit losses in the bond portfolio and a prolonged equity bear market would reduce book value. Succession and culture matter because the decentralized model requires disciplined managers and patient headquarters capital.

Reward

If underwriting remains profitable and the company earns acceptable returns on float, each retained dollar can compound through several channels at once. Insurance provides low-cost funding, investments provide liquidity, and Ventures provides wholly owned earnings that are not marked to market daily. That combination can produce per-share value growth even without a spectacular macroeconomic environment.

Latest Results Check

Q2 2026: 

1) Operating revenue $4.018B (roughly flat YoY); 

2) adjusted operating income $376M, up 40%;

3)  net income to common shareholders about $1.2B; 

4) combined ratio 93%; $237M of quarterly repurchases. 

Wins: 

Insurance reorganization improved underwriting profitability; investment income and repurchases supported per-share value.

Concerns: 

Consolidated adjusted operating income was lower because market-sensitive and non-core results were mixed; catastrophe/geopolitical losses remain unpredictable.

My Take

I view Markel as a good business, but not automatically a cheap stock. The useful anchor is normalized book value plus the earning power of Ventures, not one year's GAAP P/E. Using roughly 1.25 times latest book value gives a conservative reference near $1,891 per share. I would want a meaningful discount to that estimate, continued sub-100 combined ratios and evidence that buybacks are reducing the share count rather than merely offsetting issuance.

Disclaimer

This is analysis based on my opinion and is not financial advice. Figures can be restated, standardized data can differ from company-defined measures, and fair value depends on assumptions that may be wrong. Verify the latest filing, debt and share count, industry conditions and tax treatment before acting. Past free cash flow, dividends or buybacks do not guarantee future results.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources' Q2 Earnings: A Loss, a Storm, and a Stock That Climbed Anyway

Numbers below are current as of August 11-12, 2026, about a week after the August 7 earnings call. Alpha reported before market open that day, and the stock barely moved at first before climbing in the days since, so treat the more recent price as the relevant one.

What Is This Article About

Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported its second quarter 2026 earnings on August 7. I'll cover what was said on the call, what went right, what went wrong, then do the math on the valuation. I'll end with my own take on whether it's worth buying. This is not financial advice, just my own reading of the numbers.

What Was Discussed on the Call

Here are the numbers:

Small update today. Nothing huge, just some polish on the Vibe language and a couple of bugs I squashed.

About is now Vibe Check. Same thing it always was, the quick carousel that explains how thougTH talks (Drop, Squad, Vibe, all of it). Just a better name for it now. Click it in the sidebar any time you want a refresher.

The composer got new labels too. When you're writing a Drop:

Hover over any of them and you'll see a plain-English tooltip until it sticks. Vibe Check now has cards for Vanish, Attach, and Park It too, so the whole flow is explained in one place.

A quick glossary, since some of you asked what a few of these actually mean:

That's the whole vocabulary in one place now. Vibe Check in the sidebar walks through all of it too, any time you want a refresher.

That's it for now. More coming soon.

H&R Block's (HRB) Fiscal 2026 Earnings: A Beat, a Dividend Hike, and a Stock That's Actually Cheap

Numbers below are current as of the evening of August 11, 2026, right after the call. 

What Is This Article About

H&R Block reported its fiscal 2026 full year and fourth quarter results today. I'll cover what was said on the call, what went right, what went wrong, then do the math on the valuation. I'll end with my own take on whether it's worth buying. This is not financial advice, just my own reading of the numbers.

What Was Discussed on the Call

Here are the numbers, for the full fiscal year ended June 30, 2026:

And for the fourth quarter alone:

CEO Curtis Campbell said the results reflect improving client mix and the company's expert-led, technology-enabled strategy paying off. CFO Tiffany Mason pointed to accelerating revenue growth, margin expansion, and higher cash generation. The board raised the quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.46 a share, the ninth straight annual increase, and management guided fiscal 2027 revenue to $4.11 to $4.16 billion and adjusted earnings per share to $6.04 to $6.24, both ahead of what Wall Street was modeling. The stock jumped roughly 12% after hours on the news.

What Are the Wins

Revenue and earnings both beat estimates, and next year's guidance came in above expectations too. Here's the short version:

The capital return story is the real standout here:

What Are the Losses

Not everything in this report was as clean as the headline numbers suggest.

Analysis

Trailing P/E:

Forward P/E:

Price-to-sales and shareholder yield:

What fair value could look like, using a range of more typical multiples on that $6.14 forward EPS estimate:

For context on scale:

Is This a Good Company to Invest in Right Now

As a company, H&R Block looks like a well-run, cash-generative business with a long track record of returning money to shareholders instead of chasing expensive growth. The valuation isn't stretched at all.

Final Thoughts on Whether to Invest or Not

Personally, I'd put this as a reasonably priced, boring-in-a-good-way value stock that just proved its execution is working. I'd want to watch the short interest and see whether DIY competition picks back up before sizing up a position, but this is a name I'd be comfortable owning for the cash flow rather than watching from the sidelines.

Disclaimer:

I am not a financial advisor. This article is based on publicly available earnings data and my own personal analysis and views. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research or talk to a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

thougTH just got a few new ways to react and share.

Under every thougTH you'll now see three reactions instead of a plain like button.

🫰 Clock It — you noticed it, and you're with it. No big statement, just a nod.

🔥 Fire — you actually loved it.

💭 Spill — opens the comments so you can say what's really on your mind.

There's also a 3-dot menu on every post now. A few things live there:

Repost lets you share someone's thougTH to your own page. You can add your own words on top before it goes out, so it's more like a quote than a copy. Leave it blank and it just reposts as is.

Message sends a thougTH straight to someone in a DM. You can add a note, pick more than one person, and it shows up in your own messages too, not just theirs. Tap the thougTH inside the message and it takes you right to it.

Hide lets you hide a thougTH from your own view if it's not for you. Nothing gets deleted, and there's an Undo if you change your mind.

Edit and Delete are still there too, just for your own posts.

thougTH.com is officially live and open to everyone. 🎉

Here's how it works. When you sign up, you start as a Viewer. You can browse, like, comment, follow people, and message directly. To actually post your own thougTHs, our team promotes you to Thinker.

We do this on purpose. Keeping that step in place helps us keep the platform safe and free of abuse, and we're committed to making sure it stays that way as we grow.

Once you're a Thinker, this is your space to think out loud without worrying about judgment. Share what's actually on your mind, not just the polished version. You choose how long each thougTH sticks around: keep it forever, or pick a window after which it disappears completely from the platform.

We're glad you're here. Enjoy the platform, and welcome to thougTH..d

Create your account now : https://www.thougth.com/login

Update: thougTHs with images now stick around for up to a month.

If you attach a photo, the post will automatically disappear after 30 days at the latest. Text-only thougTHs are unaffected, you can still keep those forever if you want.

You can still pick a shorter window (1 day or 7 days) if you'd rather it disappear sooner..

Welcome to thougTH! 👋

If you're wondering about the spelling, no, it's not a typo. A "thougTH" is a thought before it's fully formed. Something you're still working out. That's the whole idea here: a place to share what's on your mind while it's still messy, not just the polished version.

How it works

Everyone starts as a Viewer. You can browse, like, comment, follow people, and send messages right away. When you're ready to actually post your own thougTHs, you can request to become a Thinker from your profile. Once approved, you're good to go.

What you can do here

You can write a thougTH and set how long it sticks around, from a few hours to forever. Attach photos, add rich text formatting, or drop in a YouTube link. Reply and like on other people's thougTHs. Follow the people whose thinking you want to keep up with, and message them directly. Need a hand navigating or just want to chat? GoDo, our AI assistant, is always in the corner. And if you need a break, there are a few games built right into the site.

Getting started

Fill out your profile, add a photo, and write a short bio so people know who you are. Follow a few Thinkers to fill up your feed. When you've got something to say, request Thinker status and start posting.

That's thougTH. Come as a Viewer. Earn your voice as a Thinker. Share your ThougTH.

Inflation Might Be Here Sooner Than You Think: One Leaked Note Tells the Whole Story

What Is This Article About

A photo of a handwritten note got published this week. It belongs to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The note said to buy $5 to $10 billion of Japanese yen. This happened the same week the US and Japan jointly stepped into the currency markets, and the same week US debt crossed $40 trillion. This article covers what happened and what it could mean for your money.

What Is Happening

The US and Japan jointly intervened to prop up the yen. This is the first time the US has helped defend another country's currency in 28 years. Right around then, a photo leaked showing Bessent's note: buy $5 to $10 billion in yen.

That number is small. The currency market trades over a trillion dollars a day. $5 to $10 billion barely moves it. That's why some people think the leak wasn't an accident.

Why It Is Happening

Two theories. 

1) it's real, and the US is actually buying yen. 

2) it was leaked on purpose, to scare traders away from betting against the yen.                   

If traders believe the US will defend the yen, they back off, and the yen strengthens on its own. No real money needed.

There's also a bigger picture. 

The US wants three things at once: 

1) bring factories home

2) keep prices stable

3) keep the economy strong. 

You can only really have two. A weaker dollar helps factories come home, but it makes prices go up. Since bringing factories home and keeping the bond market stable are non-negotiable, price stability is what gets sacrificed. In plain terms, more inflation may be coming.

What Has Caused This

US debt jumped from $34.5 trillion to $40 trillion in about two years. No recession, no pandemic, no war caused it. That's just the current pace of borrowing.

Meanwhile, the Fed leaned toward a strong dollar. Markets didn't like it. Stocks fell, gold and Bitcoin fell, and the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.27%, the highest since 2007. Higher rates make the $40 trillion debt cost more, which means more borrowing, which pushes rates even higher. It feeds itself.

Japan also owns more US debt than any other country. When the yen gets too weak, Japan sometimes sells US Treasuries to defend it. If Japan sells a lot at once, US borrowing costs could spike. So the US helping Japan isn't about friendship. It's about protecting itself.

How Will This Affect Americans

A weaker dollar makes imported goods cost more. But it also helps US factories compete, which could mean more US jobs over time.

Higher long-term rates affect mortgages, car loans, and business borrowing. And if this leads to more money printing down the road, that usually means more inflation, which eats into savings.

How Will This Affect the Rest of the World

If the yen snaps back too fast, it can trigger a "carry trade unwind." That's when investors who borrowed cheap yen to buy other assets have to sell everything to pay it back. This caused a fast global selloff in August 2024. It doesn't stay contained to Japan, it hits markets everywhere.

What Should a Normal American Expect

Expect more uncertainty. The theory is that markets may need to fall further before the government has cover to step in with stimulus. This has happened before, in 1998 and 2007, though those two played out very differently afterward.

This is a theory, not a guarantee. Nobody knows the timeline. Could be months, could be years, or it may not play out this way at all.

What Should They Do to Mitigate the Impact

Think of your money in two buckets: things that can be printed (dollars, bonds) and things that can't (gold, real assets, commodities). When governments print more money, the second bucket usually holds up better.

A few practical steps: keep an emergency fund, don't keep all your savings in cash if you're worried about a weaker dollar, and stay diversified. Even the experts don't know exactly how this plays out.

Future Action Items

Watch a few things: the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields, the strength of the yen, and the price of gold. If yields rise while stocks fall, pressure is building. If gold rises while the dollar falls, that's a sign investors are hedging against a weaker dollar. Also watch for any shift in tone from the Fed, from fighting inflation to supporting growth.

Disclaimer:

I am not a financial advisor. This article is based on my interpretation of news that mixes reported events with speculation, and reflects my own personal views. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research or talk to a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions.

Ever open Disney+ and just stare at the screen for twenty minutes? Same here. So I made a list of my top 10 Disney picks, all streaming online right now. Watch them in order or skip around, but don't skip any. Every one of these will hook you fast.

Warrior Met Coal's Q2 Earnings: Record Volumes, a Beat and Raise, and a Stock That's Actually Cheap

Numbers below are current as of the evening of August 5, 2026, right after the call. Warrior reported results after the market closed, so prices are still moving.

What Is This Article About

Warrior Met Coal reported its second quarter 2026 earnings today. I'll cover what was said on the call, what went right, what went wrong, then do the math on the valuation. I'll end with my own take on whether it's worth buying. This is not financial advice, just my own reading of the numbers.

What Was Discussed in the Q2 2026 Call

Here are the numbers:

CEO Walt Scheller said Blue Creek, the mine Warrior spent years and over a billion dollars building, is now fully operational. The heavy construction spending is done. Management raised full-year volume guidance, now expecting 13.0 to 14.0 million tons of coal sales, up from the prior range of 12.5 to 13.5 million. The board also kept the quarterly dividend at $0.08 a share.

What Are the Wins

Revenue and earnings both beat estimates by a wide margin. Here's the short version:

The balance sheet is also a real strength here:

What Are the Losses

Not everything in this report was clean.

In plain terms: the company sold more coal, but a smaller share of each benchmark dollar made it into Warrior's pocket.

Zoom out and last year is a good reminder of how fast this business can turn:

Analysis

Trailing P/E:

That's a reasonable multiple, and it's inflated by a rough 2025.

Forward P/E:

Price-to-sales:

For context on scale:

What Did I Understand From Today's Call

Blue Creek went from being a multi-year cash drain to an actual profit and cash flow contributor, exactly as management said it would.

Is This a Good Company to Invest in Right Now

As a company, Warrior looks genuinely well run. It's a low-cost producer with a strong balance sheet, a newly completed growth project that's now paying off, and management that just raised guidance instead of walking it back. The net cash position stands out.

As a stock, you're not overpaying for perfection here. You're taking on real commodity risk. Met coal prices swing with global steel demand and Chinese trade policy. Last year's results show how fast this business can turn:

Final Thoughts on Whether to Invest or Not

If you already own this stock, today's numbers back up the Blue Creek investment thesis. The mine is built, it's profitable, and the free cash flow is showing up on the balance sheet now instead of getting spent on construction.

If you're thinking about buying in fresh, you're not paying a story premium the way you would with SpaceX. You're paying a fair, arguably cheap, multiple for a well-run coal miner that just had its best operating quarter in years. The risk isn't the price you're paying, it's the commodity underneath it. Met coal prices can move against you fast, and this company's results will move right along with them.

Personally, I'd put this as reasonably priced, cyclical bet on a company that just proved its big growth project works. I'd want to see the price realization number stabilize and get a read on how China's import demand shakes out before sizing up, but this is a name I'd actually be comfortable starting a small position in rather than watching from the sidelines right now!

Disclaimer:

I am not a financial advisor. This article is based on publicly available earnings data and my own personal analysis and views. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research or talk to a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

SpaceX's First Earnings Call: A Trillion-Dollar Rocket With No Brakes

Numbers below are current as of the evening of August 4, 2026, right after the call. This was SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company, so there's no real earnings history to compare it to yet. Prices are still moving fast.

What Is This Article About

SpaceX went public in June 2026 in the largest IPO in history, and today it held its first ever earnings call as a public company. This article covers what was said on the call, what went right, what went wrong, and then does real math on the valuation, including just how big this company's price tag has gotten. It ends with my own take on whether it's worth buying. This is not financial advice, just my own reading of the numbers.

What Was Discussed in the Q2 2026 Call

SpaceX reported $7.81 billion in revenue for the quarter, up 92% from a year ago and well above the $6.93 billion analysts expected. The company is still losing money, but the loss shrank a lot. Net loss came in at $541 million, or 9 cents a share, much smaller than the 26 cent loss analysts had modeled and a big improvement from the $1 billion loss a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $3.5 billion, nearly double the $2.0 billion expected.

Starlink, the satellite internet business, passed 12 million subscribers and its connectivity segment posted $2.60 billion in adjusted EBITDA, ahead of the $2.41 billion expected. CFO Bret Johnsen said SpaceX is on pace to hit $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by the end of the year, and mentioned the company has already contracted an additional $6.7 billion in cloud services revenue that starts ramping in October. Elon Musk also said on the call that Nvidia will be SpaceX's exclusive supplier for its AI chip needs, tying the company's new AI infrastructure push to Nvidia's hardware.

Despite all of that beating expectations, the stock fell after hours. The reason given across most coverage was capital expenditures, SpaceX is spending an enormous amount of money building out Starship, Starlink, and now AI data centers, and that spending came in heavier than investors wanted to see.

What Are the Wins

Revenue beat estimates by a wide margin and grew 92% year over year. The loss per share was far smaller than expected, a sign the business is getting closer to breakeven. Adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled what analysts modeled. Starlink crossed 12 million subscribers and its profitability came in ahead of plan. On top of the financials, SpaceX locked in a large new cloud services contract worth $6.7 billion and set a public target of $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by year end, which, if hit, would be a massive jump from where the company sits today.

What Are the Losses

SpaceX is still not profitable. It lost $541 million this quarter, on top of a $4.28 billion loss in the first quarter of the year. Capital spending is enormous, and that spending spike is exactly what spooked investors and sent the stock lower after hours, even with a clean beat on nearly every headline number. Free cash flow over the last twelve months is deeply negative, around negative $19.8 billion, because the company is pouring money into Starship, satellite manufacturing, and now AI infrastructure all at once. The balance sheet also shows more debt than cash, about $30.6 billion in debt against $23.7 billion in cash, putting the company in a net debt position rather than a net cash position, which is unusual for a company this highly valued.

The stock itself has also had a rough couple of months. It IPO'd at $135 a share in June, spiked to an all-time high of $225.64 within days, and had fallen more than 45% from that high heading into today's report. Today's after-hours drop adds to that slide.

Analysis

This is where it gets interesting, because SpaceX doesn't fit neatly into normal valuation math the way a profitable company does.

Trailing P/E: Not applicable. SpaceX lost money over the last twelve months, so there is no meaningful price-to-earnings ratio to calculate. Any company that isn't profitable doesn't have a real trailing P/E, full stop.

Forward P/E: Analysts currently model SpaceX moving toward a small profit next year, which produces a forward P/E of roughly 190x. I'd treat this number with real caution. When a company is right at the edge of breakeven, tiny changes in the earnings estimate swing the P/E wildly, so a number like 190x is more of a reflection of "barely profitable" than a useful yardstick. Still, even acknowledging that, it signals the market is pricing in an extraordinary amount of future growth to justify today's share price.

A better measure here is price-to-sales, since the company isn't profitable yet. 

Using the after-hours market cap of roughly $1.56 trillion and trailing twelve-month revenue of $19.3 billion, that's a price-to-sales ratio of about 81x. For comparison, even the hottest AI software companies typically trade in the 15 to 25 times sales range. SpaceX is trading at multiples of that, on top of being a capital-intensive hardware and infrastructure business, not a software company with fat margins. On a forward basis, using next year's expected revenue, the multiple comes down to around 33x sales, still very rich by almost any standard.

Now let's talk about the market cap itself, because the number is genuinely hard to wrap your head around.

At today's after-hours price, SpaceX is worth around $1.56 trillion. Here's what that looks like next to some other numbers:

I think calling this valuation "ridiculously high" is fair. It's not that SpaceX isn't a great business, it clearly is, but the stock price has moved into territory where it's being valued like it already dominates AI infrastructure, satellite internet, and space transport combined, years before any of that is fully proven out.

What Did I Understand From Today's Call

The actual business performed well. Revenue beat, losses shrank faster than expected, Starlink is scaling nicely, and there's real, contracted demand for the new AI infrastructure push, not just a slide in an investor deck. That part of the story is legitimately impressive for a company only two months into being public.

But the stock reaction tells you the market had priced in near perfection, and heavy capital spending was enough to break that spell. This looks a lot like the AMD story from earlier today: a real beat, followed by a sell-off, because the bar was set absurdly high going in.

Is This a Good Company to Invest in Right Now

As a company, SpaceX is remarkable. It has no real competitor at its scale in launch, a fast-growing and increasingly profitable satellite internet business, and it's now stepping into AI infrastructure with actual contracts behind it, not just ambition. If you're evaluating the underlying business on its own, it's hard not to be impressed.

As a stock at a $1.56 trillion valuation, this is a much harder call. You are paying for years of flawless execution across three different businesses at once, launch, satellite internet, and AI infrastructure, while the company is still burning cash and carries more debt than cash on hand. The gap between where the stock trades and where the actual current financials would justify is enormous by my own math. That doesn't mean the stock can't keep climbing, momentum and story-driven stocks can stay expensive for a long time, but it does mean there's very little room for anything to go wrong.

Final Thoughts on Whether to Invest or Not

If you already own shares from the IPO, today's numbers were genuinely good, and there's nothing here that breaks the long-term story. If you're thinking about buying in fresh at today's price, understand you're not buying a value stock, you're buying a bet on Elon Musk and his team continuing to execute at a nearly impossible level across rockets, satellites, and now AI data centers, all while the stock already prices in a huge amount of that success happening. I'd also want to watch how the stock trades over the next few months as more lockup shares become sellable, since that alone could create pressure independent of how the business is actually doing.

Personally, this is not a stock I'd chase right after a first earnings report with this much valuation risk already baked in. If I wanted exposure, I'd rather wait and see how it trades through the lockup expiration later this year before deciding whether to build a position, and even then, I'd size it small given how far the current price sits from what the underlying numbers support today.

As Buffet would say, this stock for me goes into a Too-Hard pile! 

Disclaimer: 

I am not a financial advisor. This article is based on publicly available earnings data and my own personal analysis and views. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research or talk to a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Stock Market Volatility Is Coming. Here's How to Survive It.

What Is This Article About

This article breaks down my “ThougTHs” about Japan's currency, the yen. The yen just hit its lowest value in 40 years. This is not just a Japan problem. It is starting to touch American mortgages, stocks, and interest rates too. This piece explains what is going on, why it started, and what a normal person should do about it.

What Is Happening

The Japanese yen has crashed to its weakest level in four decades. Japan stepped in to stop the fall. They sold US dollars and used that money to buy back their own currency. This is called a currency intervention. It is a rare and drastic move.

Japan also happens to be the largest foreign owner of US government debt, known as Treasuries. When Japan sells dollars, it also ends up selling Treasuries. That sends shockwaves through the US bond market. US banks have already been told to prepare for more of this.

Why It Is Happening

For years, traders ran a strategy called the "carry trade." Here is how it worked. You borrow yen at a very low interest rate, close to zero. You convert that money into dollars. You put those dollars into US Treasuries, which pay a much higher interest rate. You pocket the difference.

This worked well for a long time because Japan's rates stayed low and the yen kept losing value against the dollar. But once the gap between US and Japanese interest rates got too wide, and the yen got too weak, the trade started to break down. Investors began rushing to sell yen-funded positions, which made the yen crash even harder.

What Has Caused This

Two things collided. First, the US fought record inflation in 2022 and 2023 by raising interest rates faster than almost any time in history. Second, Japan has dealt with decades of deflation, an aging population, and weak demand, so it kept its interest rates near zero just to keep its economy moving.

That created a massive gap between US and Japanese interest rates. Money flowed out of Japan and into US dollars to chase the better return. Over time, this pushed the yen lower and lower until Japan felt forced to intervene directly in the currency markets.

How Will This Affect Americans

When Japan sells US Treasuries to raise cash for its currency defense, it adds a flood of supply to the bond market. More supply pushes bond prices down and yields up. Higher yields mean higher interest rates across the board.

That shows up in daily life as higher mortgage rates, higher rates on car loans and credit cards, and more expensive borrowing for businesses. It also puts pressure on stock prices, since higher rates tend to make stocks less attractive compared to safer investments like bonds.

How Will This Affect the Rest of the World

Global economies are tightly connected. Japan is not the only country selling US Treasuries right now. Other nations are doing the same because they are dealing with their own inflation, often driven by rising oil prices. Demand for US bonds has dropped to a 10-year low.

This is a global chain reaction. One country's currency problem can push interest rates higher everywhere, which slows down borrowing, spending, and investment worldwide.

How Should a Normal American Citizen Be Prepared

Nobody needs to panic, but it makes sense to be alert. Expect more volatility in the stock market over the coming weeks. Expect interest rates on loans and mortgages to stay elevated or possibly rise further. This is a good time to understand your own exposure. Know if you have variable rate debt, know your emergency savings situation, and know how much of your portfolio is sitting in one place.

What Should They Expect

Based on the last time this happened, in 2024, the pattern tends to repeat. Japan intervenes, the yen bounces for a few weeks, and then it slides right back down because the intervention treats the symptom, not the root cause, which is the interest rate gap between the US and Japan.

There are really only two ways this resolves. Either the gap closes slowly, with Japan raising rates and the US lowering them over time, or it closes suddenly, which could trigger a sharp, fast downturn in markets. The next major checkpoint to watch is September 16th, when the Federal Reserve is expected to make its next interest rate decision.

What Should They Do to Mitigate the Impact

A few sensible steps: keep an emergency fund so you are not forced to sell investments during a downturn, avoid making big emotional decisions based on short-term headlines, stay diversified rather than concentrated in one stock or sector, and if you are planning to borrow money soon, like for a mortgage or car, factor in that rates may stay high for a while longer. Long-term investors historically have been rewarded for staying invested through volatility rather than trying to time an exit.

Future Action Items

Keep an eye on a few dates and signals in the weeks ahead: the Federal Reserve's September 16th meeting, any further emergency interventions from the Bank of Japan, movement in the US 10-year Treasury yield, and the dollar-to-yen exchange rate. These will show whether this settles down or escalates.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This article reflects my own personal views and interpretation of news, not professional financial advice. Please do your own research or speak with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment or financial decisions.

Met Coal: The Quiet Commodity That Could Lead the Next Run in Stock Market?

What is met coal

Met coal stands for metallurgical coal. It is also called coking coal. It is not the same as thermal coal, which power plants burn for electricity. Met coal has one job. It gets baked into coke. Coke is the fuel and the chemical agent that turns iron ore into liquid iron inside a blast furnace. Without coke, most of the world's steel simply cannot get made.

How is Steel Produced: Electric furnace versus blast furnace, and why coal still matters

Here is the part most people miss. There are two ways to make steel.

EAF is often called the "green" route because it skips coal. But EAF has a real weakness. It needs two things in large supply: clean scrap steel and cheap, reliable electricity. Right now, electricity demand is exploding, mostly because of AI data centers and rising cooling and heating needs. Power infrastructure starts are rising more than 21% year over year just to keep up. When power-hungry data centers, EVs, and factories are all bidding for the same electrons, power prices tend to rise. That makes EAF steel more expensive to run, right when the world needs more steel, not less.

Blast furnace steel does not compete for electricity the same way. It runs on coal and ore, which are priced in their own markets and are not tied to the electric grid squeeze. So as power costs climb, the old-fashioned coal-based route starts to look economically sensible again, not just for legacy reasons but on pure cost grounds. That is a real tailwind for met coal that most people are not pricing in yet.

Where met coal ends up

Steel is everywhere, and met coal is the hidden ingredient behind most of it.

Every tonne of steel made the traditional way needs roughly 0.6 to 0.8 tonnes of met coal, once you count both the coke and the PCI coal. So when you hear that a country is building infrastructure, you are also hearing a call on met coal demand, even if nobody says the word coal.

AI, data centers, and a new source of steel demand

The AI buildout has turned into a steel story too. U.S. data center construction starts went from $14.9 billion in 2023 to $77.7 billion in 2025, a 190% jump in one year. Spending through April 2026 alone hit $49.5 billion, nearly four times the pace from a year earlier. Moody's now projects $3 trillion in global data center spending over the next five years.

Data centers are not just racks and chips. Visit one under construction and steel is everywhere: framing, strut ceiling supports, conduit, piping, racks, cabinets, and wall panels. Add in the power plants, substations, and transmission towers needed to feed all that electricity, and you get a new, durable source of steel demand that was barely on the radar five years ago. New steel demand, even scrap-based steel demand, tightens the whole market and lifts the value of primary steel capacity that still needs met coal.

Coal as a critical mineral

The U.S. government made a formal move on this front. In May 2025, the Department of Energy designated coal used in steelmaking as a critical material under the Energy Act of 2020. Then in November 2025, the U.S. Geological Survey added metallurgical coal to the official 2025 Critical Minerals List, alongside copper, silver, uranium, and eight other materials. Critical mineral status is supposed to go to commodities that matter for economic or national security and whose supply chains are vulnerable, and that are essential to key products.

The U.S. is actually the world's second largest met coal exporter and already produces most of what it uses, so this designation will not fix a foreign dependence problem the way it might for something like lithium. What it does instead is unlock federal permitting speed, financing support, and political protection for domestic coal projects. Congress also made met coal eligible for the advanced manufacturing production tax credit under the 2025 reconciliation law, and the Permitting Council fast-tracked Warrior Met Coal's mines as a transparency project. This is the government putting its thumb on the scale for domestic met coal supply and for the steel mills that use it.

The US Steel golden share connects the dots

This is where the earlier news ties in. The U.S. government now holds a golden share in US Steel as part of the Nippon Steel buyout. That share gives Washington veto power over plant closures, headquarters moves, and any move of production out of the country. At the same time, Congress extended production tax credits to metallurgical coal, the raw material these older integrated mills need for ironmaking. Nippon Steel has already reinvested $350 million into the coal-based ironmaking process at its Gary, Indiana plant.

Put it together and you get a government that will not let a legacy blast furnace plant simply shut down, paired with a subsidy that makes running that plant on coal cheaper. That is about as direct a policy tailwind for met coal demand as you are likely to find.

Global supply and demand, the last 20 years

China and India have driven coal demand for two decades, and China is now the swing buyer while India is the rising one. As you can see in the graph (chart1_top_importers_2024), China imported far more coal than any other country in 2024, with India a distant second and Japan third.

Supply versus demand for the decades ahead

Nobody can forecast 50 years of coal supply and demand with real precision, so the honest picture is a range, not a single number. As you can see in the graph (chart2_longterm_outlook), industry forecasts show met coal trade holding fairly steady in a base case, but dropping by more than half if the world moves fast toward net zero steel.

India, the new demand engine

India is where the growth story lives right now, since its steel sector imports 90% of its metallurgical coal and wants to keep expanding output. As you can see in the graph (chart3_india_imports), India's met coal imports are on a steady upward path, roughly doubling between 2025 and 2035.

India also has aggressive steel production goals, and most of that growth still runs through coal-hungry blast furnaces. As you can see in the graph (chart4_india_steel_targets), India aims to more than triple its current steel output by 2047.

Putting the case together

Here is the bull case in one place.

The other side of it

A fair case has to include the risks, because they are real.

Bottom line

The pieces line up better for met coal than for almost any other commodity right now. Steady India-led demand growth. A U.S. government actively protecting domestic coal-based steel capacity. Rising electricity costs pushing the economics back toward the old blast furnace route, right as AI adds a new source of steel demand. Two well-run, low-cost, shareholder-friendly producers sitting at the center of it.

This is a real, well-supported case for met coal doing well over the next several years. It is not a sure thing and I'm not a financial advisor, so treat this as the bull case laid out honestly, not as personal investment advice. It's worth weighing against the risks above, and maybe a conversation with a financial advisor, before sizing a position.

I just shipped the biggest thing I've built on thougTH since launch: Cults. This post explains what a Cult is, what you can do inside one, and how to start your own.

A Cult is a community built around one shared obsession. Not a general chat room for everything, a space for one specific thing: a show, a team, a hobby, an idea, whatever it is you and a group of people can't stop talking about.

You can start one in a few minutes. Give it a name, a symbol or a picture, decide who gets in, and it's live.

Analyzing Stock for Company: Nucor Corporation

Summary:

The largest U.S. steel producer, using electric-arc mini-mills, downstream steel products and raw-material operations. About 86 years from the company’s 1940 predecessor; steel focus developed in the 1960s. Excellent cyclical operator; buy only when mid-cycle earnings, not peak earnings, provide a margin of safety. 

Latest standardized data show 

1) assets of $36,954M, 

2) debt of $7,099M, 

3) book value of $22,109M, 

4) trailing free cash flow of $1,583M and 

5) trailing earnings of $2,884M. 

6) The reported P/E is 21.7x. 

The latest reference price used in this report is $272.33, versus a conservative industry-specific fair-value reference of $133.56. From FY2021-FY2025, standardized cash-flow statements show approximately $2,566M of common dividends/distributions and $10,781M of gross common-share repurchases.

Business Model

Nucor buys scrap and other metallic inputs, melts them in electric-arc furnaces, rolls the steel into sheet, plate, bar and structural products, and increasingly fabricates downstream products such as joists, decking and rebar. Mini-mills can start and stop more flexibly than traditional blast furnaces, lowering fixed-cost exposure. Downstream operations capture additional margin and provide demand visibility, while recycling and raw-material assets secure feedstock.

Bull Case

Nucor combines commodity exposure with an unusually durable operating culture. Its variable-cost mini-mills, national footprint and investment-grade balance sheet allow it to remain profitable and invest when weaker competitors retreat.

 Latest Q2 2026

 1) net sales were about $10.4 billion 

2)  adjusted EBITDA roughly $2.0 billion. 

From 2021 through 2025 the company returned approximately $13.5 billion through dividends and gross buybacks. Domestic infrastructure, reshoring, data-center construction and trade barriers can support utilization for years.

Bear Case

Steel remains cyclical. New capacity built during good years can create oversupply just as construction and manufacturing weaken. Tariffs may lift domestic prices but also encourage imports, substitution or political reversal. Peak-cycle earnings make the stock look cheapest when normalized value may be least attractive. Downstream acquisitions can dilute returns if Nucor pays peak multiples to smooth a fundamentally cyclical business.

Risks

Scrap spreads, energy prices, plant outages, construction demand, auto production, trade policy and environmental regulation drive results. Electric-arc furnaces reduce carbon intensity but still require large power supplies. A severe recession can collapse steel prices faster than input costs. Capital allocation is another risk because the company has committed billions to growth projects whose returns depend on future utilization.

Reward

Nucor can gain share across cycles because it enters downturns with liquidity, keeps skilled teams and buys or builds assets when competitors are constrained. Essential domestic steel capacity also has strategic value. If the company earns mid-cycle returns on recent investments, dividends and buybacks can convert operating resilience into per-share compounding.

Latest Results Check

Q2 2026: 

1) Net sales $10.397B; 

2) net earnings $1.16B, 

3) or $5.04/share; 

4) adjusted earnings $1.11B, or $4.84/share; 

5) EBITDA about $2.0B. 

Wins: 

Record steel-mill shipments, stronger pricing and infrastructure demand; balance-sheet liquidity remained substantial.

Concerns: 

Steel prices and earnings are cyclical; current policy support and outages may flatter near-term margins.

My Take

This is one of the best businesses in a difficult industry. I would not value it using the latest quarter multiplied by a normal market P/E. A more sensible approach is roughly 12 to 14 times normalized cycle earnings, adjusted for excess cash and project spending. My buying signal would be a price supported by recession-level earnings and replacement value, not enthusiasm about current steel spreads.

Disclaimer

This is analysis based on my opinion and is not financial advice. Figures can be restated, standardized data can differ from company-defined measures, and fair value depends on assumptions that may be wrong. Verify the latest filing, debt and share count, industry conditions and tax treatment before acting. 

Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/cricket/india-vs-sri-lanka-live-score-1st-test-match-today-scorecard-squad-live-streaming-records-galle-international-stadium-weather-report-rain-forecast-prediction-highlights-latest-cricket-news/liveblog/133268903.cms                                                        India vs Sri Lanka 1st Test (Galle): Padikkal’s 167, Galle Turn, and Why India Holds All the Cards

Numbers below are current as of Day 2 Stumps, August 16, 2026.

What Is This Article About

India and Sri Lanka are facing off in the 1st Test at the Galle International Cricket Stadium. With the transition into a younger Test core under Shubman Gill, this match tests India's batting discipline against Sri Lanka's spin attack in testing subcontinental conditions. I'll break down the state of play, look at key performances, highlight potential trouble areas, and analyze how the pitch might behave going into Day 3.

What Happened on Day 1 & 2

Here are the key numbers from India's first innings:

India 1st Innings: 460/9 after 116 overs (Run Rate: 3.97).

Top Scorers: Devdutt Padikkal (167 off 230 balls), KL Rahul (82 off 175 balls), Dhruv Jurel (51 off 68 balls).

Sri Lanka Bowling: Prabath Jayasuriya (4/109 in 39 overs), Keshara Nuwantha (3/175 in 39 overs), Asitha Fernando (1/61).

After winning the toss and electing to bat on a dry surface, India capitalized on prime batting conditions before Galle started offering turn. Padikkal anchored the innings with a composed century, allowing the lower middle order to play freely and push the total past 450.

What Are the Wins

Batting Depth & Composure: Devdutt Padikkal’s 167 gave India a massive cushion, while half-centuries from KL Rahul and Dhruv Jurel ensured partnerships never stalled.

Scoring Rate: Operating at nearly 4 runs per over put Sri Lanka’s bowlers under continuous pressure and dictated the game's tempo.

Spin Leverage: Putting 460 on the board means India's spin trio (Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, Manav Suthar) can attack with aggressive close-in fielders from ball one.

What Are the Concerns

Middle-Order Soft Dismissals: Both Shubman Gill (16) and Rishabh Pant (39) got starts against the new ball but failed to convert into big knocks before Jayasuriya found bite off the pitch.

Fast-Deteriorating Surface: Galle is notorious for breaking up rapidly from Day 3 onwards; batting fourth here would be treacherous if Sri Lanka manages a resilient first innings.

Analysis

Match Position & Win Probabilities:

India Win Probability: ~52%

Draw Probability: ~45%

Sri Lanka Win Probability: ~3%

Tactical Matchup:

Sri Lanka bowled 78 overs of spin out of 116 in the first innings. The pitch is already showing variable bounce and sharp turn out of the rough. Sri Lanka’s top order (Nishan Madushka, Dinesh Chandimal, Kamindu Mendis) will face immediate test against Kuldeep Yadav’s wrist spin and Jadeja’s relentless accuracy.

Is India in Full Control Right Now

Yes. In subcontinental Test cricket, any first-innings score above 400 is considered a match-winning benchmark. Sri Lanka must bat for at least five to six sessions just to avoid following on, while India only needs 20 good deliveries across the next three days to seal the game.

Final Thoughts on How the Match Unfolds

I expect India to declare early on Day 3 or wrap up the remaining wicket quickly, unleashing the spinners immediately. Unless Sri Lanka produces two extraordinary individual hundreds, India should be able to enforce massive first-innings pressure and dictate the final outcome.

Disclaimer:

This post is based on match data up to Day 2 Stumps and represents personal cricketing analysis and opinion. Match situations in Test cricket can evolve quickly depending on weather and session momentum.

Analyzing Stock for Company: Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) 

Summary

A master limited partnership producing coal in the eastern United States and owning oil, gas and mineral royalty interests. About 55 years; predecessor operations began in 1971. Potential income value, not a classic forever compounder; require a high yield and conservative commodity assumptions. 

Latest standardized data show:

1)  assets of $2,942M, 

2) debt of $591M, 

3) book value of $1,769M, 

4) trailing free cash flow of $-257M and 

5) trailing earnings of $266M. 

The reported P/E is 12.2x. The latest reference price used in this article is $24.86, versus a conservative industry-specific fair-value reference of $20.76. 

From FY2021-FY2025, standardized cash-flow statements show approximately $1,314M of common dividends/distributions and $19M of gross common-share repurchases.

Business Model

Alliance Resource Partners is a publicly traded master limited partnership. It mines thermal coal primarily in the Illinois Basin and Appalachia, sells much of that output under contracts to electric utilities, and owns mineral and royalty interests that collect revenue without bearing all drilling costs. Cash available after mine operating costs, maintenance capital, interest and working capital funds quarterly distributions, growth projects and occasional unit repurchases. Because it is an MLP, investors receive partnership tax reporting rather than a conventional corporate dividend statement.

Bull Case

ARLP's advantage is cost and customer proximity rather than a consumer brand. Long-lived mines near domestic power plants lower delivered cost, while contracted tons can stabilize volumes compared with fully spot-exposed producers. The royalty portfolio adds a less capital-intensive stream. Latest 2026 figures show roughly $552 million of quarterly revenue, about $80 million of net income and $165 million of adjusted EBITDA; standardized 2021-2025 data indicate about $1.3 billion of distributions. At a sufficiently high distributable-cash yield, investors are paid heavily while waiting.

Bear Case

Thermal coal is not a fifty-year certainty simply because ARLP has operated for decades. Utilities continue retiring coal plants, environmental compliance raises customer costs, and cheap natural gas or subsidized renewables can reduce dispatch. Contract protection eventually rolls off. The partnership may appear optically cheap on a P/E basis just before prices, volumes or margins reset lower, which is the classic commodity-value trap.

Risks

Mine accidents, roof falls, methane, flooding, labor availability, rail interruptions and environmental liabilities can interrupt production. A warm winter or recession can reduce electricity demand. Customer concentration matters because a utility closure can strand reserves. MLP distributions are discretionary, commodity-linked and tax complex; leverage and reclamation obligations must be evaluated alongside stated debt.

Reward

If U.S. electricity demand rises from data centers and grid reliability keeps existing coal plants running longer, ARLP can harvest mature mines while royalty cash diversifies the decline. Scarcity can also improve contract pricing because replacement mines are difficult to permit and finance. The reward is primarily high cash yield plus disciplined runoff—not Visa-like perpetual compounding.

Latest Results Check

Q2 2026:

1) Revenue $551.6M; 

2) net income attributable to ARLP $79.6M, or $0.61/unit;

3) adjusted EBITDA $185.7M, up 14.7% YoY; 

4) quarterly distribution $0.60/unit. 

Wins: 

1) Record oil-and-gas royalty revenue, stronger coal volumes and lower unit costs improved EBITDA. 

Concerns: 

1) Thermal-coal pricing and long-term demand remain uncertain;

2) capital spending and commodity swings can make headline yield misleading.

My Take

I would classify ARLP as an income and asset-harvest investment, not a classic Buffett compounder. I would value it on normalized distributable cash flow after maintenance capital and demand at least a high-teens cash yield or roughly seven times conservative free cash flow. The key diligence items are contracted tons, customer plant-retirement schedules, maintenance capital, reclamation liabilities and distribution coverage.

Disclaimer

This is analysis based on my opinion and is not financial advice. Figures can be restated, standardized data can differ from company-defined measures, and fair value depends on assumptions that may be wrong. Verify the latest filing, debt and share count, industry conditions and tax treatment before acting. Past free cash flow, dividends or buybacks do not guarantee future results.

Analyzing Stock for Company: Markel Group (MKL) 

Summary 

A specialty-insurance-led holding company. Insurance underwriting and float fund a portfolio of public securities and wholly owned operating businesses. About 96 years; insurance roots date to 1930. High-quality compounder candidate, but only attractive with a margin of safety to normalized book and operating value. 

Latest standardized data show

1)  assets of $71,263M

2) debt of $4,368M

3) book value of $19,006M

4) trailing free cash flow of $2,118M 

5) trailing earnings of $2,285M

The reported P/E is 10.2x. The latest reference price used in this article is $1,836.38, versus a conservative industry-specific fair-value reference of $1,890.88. From FY2021-FY2025, standardized cash-flow statements show approximately $0M of common dividends/distributions and $1,945M of gross common-share repurchases.

Business Model

Markel has three economic engines. Insurance collects premiums today and pays claims later, creating float that can be invested. The investment portfolio earns interest, dividends and capital gains on that float and shareholders' equity. Markel Ventures owns a decentralized collection of industrial, service and consumer businesses whose cash can be retained and redeployed. The model resembles a smaller Berkshire Hathaway, but underwriting discipline is the load-bearing wall: float is valuable only when the combined ratio stays below 100 over a full cycle.

Bull Case

The strongest argument is the compounding architecture. 

1) Book value per share rose from about $1,297 in 2024 to roughly $1,513 on the latest 2026 balance-sheet data, 

2) while debt remained near $4.3 billion and annual free cash flow stayed above $2.1 billion. 

3) Q2 2026 adjusted operating income increased about 40% to $376 million and the combined ratio was approximately 93%, 

meaning underwriting produced a profit before investment income. Markel also repurchased about $2.0 billion of stock from 2021 through 2025, an intelligent use of capital when shares trade below management's estimate of intrinsic value.

Bear Case

The Berkshire comparison can make investors overlook Markel's weaker parts. Insurance results can change abruptly after hurricanes, liability inflation or reserve revisions, and reported net income is noisy because public securities move through earnings. Markel Ventures is diversified but contains economically sensitive businesses, so a recession can weaken operating companies at the same time that investment values fall. The company is also more dependent on a small group of capital allocators than a plain insurer would be.

Risks

The sharpest risks are underpriced insurance, adverse reserve development, catastrophe concentration, investment losses and acquisition mistakes inside Markel Ventures. Social inflation can push claim severity higher years after policies were written. Credit losses in the bond portfolio and a prolonged equity bear market would reduce book value. Succession and culture matter because the decentralized model requires disciplined managers and patient headquarters capital.

Reward

If underwriting remains profitable and the company earns acceptable returns on float, each retained dollar can compound through several channels at once. Insurance provides low-cost funding, investments provide liquidity, and Ventures provides wholly owned earnings that are not marked to market daily. That combination can produce per-share value growth even without a spectacular macroeconomic environment.

Latest Results Check

Q2 2026: 

1) Operating revenue $4.018B (roughly flat YoY); 

2) adjusted operating income $376M, up 40%;

3)  net income to common shareholders about $1.2B; 

4) combined ratio 93%; $237M of quarterly repurchases. 

Wins: 

Insurance reorganization improved underwriting profitability; investment income and repurchases supported per-share value.

Concerns: 

Consolidated adjusted operating income was lower because market-sensitive and non-core results were mixed; catastrophe/geopolitical losses remain unpredictable.

My Take

I view Markel as a good business, but not automatically a cheap stock. The useful anchor is normalized book value plus the earning power of Ventures, not one year's GAAP P/E. Using roughly 1.25 times latest book value gives a conservative reference near $1,891 per share. I would want a meaningful discount to that estimate, continued sub-100 combined ratios and evidence that buybacks are reducing the share count rather than merely offsetting issuance.

Disclaimer

This is analysis based on my opinion and is not financial advice. Figures can be restated, standardized data can differ from company-defined measures, and fair value depends on assumptions that may be wrong. Verify the latest filing, debt and share count, industry conditions and tax treatment before acting. Past free cash flow, dividends or buybacks do not guarantee future results.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources' Q2 Earnings: A Loss, a Storm, and a Stock That Climbed Anyway

Numbers below are current as of August 11-12, 2026, about a week after the August 7 earnings call. Alpha reported before market open that day, and the stock barely moved at first before climbing in the days since, so treat the more recent price as the relevant one.

What Is This Article About

Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported its second quarter 2026 earnings on August 7. I'll cover what was said on the call, what went right, what went wrong, then do the math on the valuation. I'll end with my own take on whether it's worth buying. This is not financial advice, just my own reading of the numbers.

What Was Discussed on the Call

Here are the numbers:

Small update today. Nothing huge, just some polish on the Vibe language and a couple of bugs I squashed.

About is now Vibe Check. Same thing it always was, the quick carousel that explains how thougTH talks (Drop, Squad, Vibe, all of it). Just a better name for it now. Click it in the sidebar any time you want a refresher.

The composer got new labels too. When you're writing a Drop:

Hover over any of them and you'll see a plain-English tooltip until it sticks. Vibe Check now has cards for Vanish, Attach, and Park It too, so the whole flow is explained in one place.

A quick glossary, since some of you asked what a few of these actually mean:

That's the whole vocabulary in one place now. Vibe Check in the sidebar walks through all of it too, any time you want a refresher.

That's it for now. More coming soon.

H&R Block's (HRB) Fiscal 2026 Earnings: A Beat, a Dividend Hike, and a Stock That's Actually Cheap

Numbers below are current as of the evening of August 11, 2026, right after the call. 

What Is This Article About

H&R Block reported its fiscal 2026 full year and fourth quarter results today. I'll cover what was said on the call, what went right, what went wrong, then do the math on the valuation. I'll end with my own take on whether it's worth buying. This is not financial advice, just my own reading of the numbers.

What Was Discussed on the Call

Here are the numbers, for the full fiscal year ended June 30, 2026:

And for the fourth quarter alone:

CEO Curtis Campbell said the results reflect improving client mix and the company's expert-led, technology-enabled strategy paying off. CFO Tiffany Mason pointed to accelerating revenue growth, margin expansion, and higher cash generation. The board raised the quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.46 a share, the ninth straight annual increase, and management guided fiscal 2027 revenue to $4.11 to $4.16 billion and adjusted earnings per share to $6.04 to $6.24, both ahead of what Wall Street was modeling. The stock jumped roughly 12% after hours on the news.

What Are the Wins

Revenue and earnings both beat estimates, and next year's guidance came in above expectations too. Here's the short version:

The capital return story is the real standout here:

What Are the Losses

Not everything in this report was as clean as the headline numbers suggest.

Analysis

Trailing P/E:

Forward P/E:

Price-to-sales and shareholder yield:

What fair value could look like, using a range of more typical multiples on that $6.14 forward EPS estimate:

For context on scale:

Is This a Good Company to Invest in Right Now

As a company, H&R Block looks like a well-run, cash-generative business with a long track record of returning money to shareholders instead of chasing expensive growth. The valuation isn't stretched at all.

Final Thoughts on Whether to Invest or Not

Personally, I'd put this as a reasonably priced, boring-in-a-good-way value stock that just proved its execution is working. I'd want to watch the short interest and see whether DIY competition picks back up before sizing up a position, but this is a name I'd be comfortable owning for the cash flow rather than watching from the sidelines.

Disclaimer:

I am not a financial advisor. This article is based on publicly available earnings data and my own personal analysis and views. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research or talk to a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

thougTH just got a few new ways to react and share.

Under every thougTH you'll now see three reactions instead of a plain like button.

🫰 Clock It — you noticed it, and you're with it. No big statement, just a nod.

🔥 Fire — you actually loved it.

💭 Spill — opens the comments so you can say what's really on your mind.

There's also a 3-dot menu on every post now. A few things live there:

Repost lets you share someone's thougTH to your own page. You can add your own words on top before it goes out, so it's more like a quote than a copy. Leave it blank and it just reposts as is.

Message sends a thougTH straight to someone in a DM. You can add a note, pick more than one person, and it shows up in your own messages too, not just theirs. Tap the thougTH inside the message and it takes you right to it.

Hide lets you hide a thougTH from your own view if it's not for you. Nothing gets deleted, and there's an Undo if you change your mind.

Edit and Delete are still there too, just for your own posts.

thougTH.com is officially live and open to everyone. 🎉

Here's how it works. When you sign up, you start as a Viewer. You can browse, like, comment, follow people, and message directly. To actually post your own thougTHs, our team promotes you to Thinker.

We do this on purpose. Keeping that step in place helps us keep the platform safe and free of abuse, and we're committed to making sure it stays that way as we grow.

Once you're a Thinker, this is your space to think out loud without worrying about judgment. Share what's actually on your mind, not just the polished version. You choose how long each thougTH sticks around: keep it forever, or pick a window after which it disappears completely from the platform.

We're glad you're here. Enjoy the platform, and welcome to thougTH..d

Create your account now : https://www.thougth.com/login

Update: thougTHs with images now stick around for up to a month.

If you attach a photo, the post will automatically disappear after 30 days at the latest. Text-only thougTHs are unaffected, you can still keep those forever if you want.

You can still pick a shorter window (1 day or 7 days) if you'd rather it disappear sooner..

Welcome to thougTH! 👋

If you're wondering about the spelling, no, it's not a typo. A "thougTH" is a thought before it's fully formed. Something you're still working out. That's the whole idea here: a place to share what's on your mind while it's still messy, not just the polished version.

How it works

Everyone starts as a Viewer. You can browse, like, comment, follow people, and send messages right away. When you're ready to actually post your own thougTHs, you can request to become a Thinker from your profile. Once approved, you're good to go.

What you can do here

You can write a thougTH and set how long it sticks around, from a few hours to forever. Attach photos, add rich text formatting, or drop in a YouTube link. Reply and like on other people's thougTHs. Follow the people whose thinking you want to keep up with, and message them directly. Need a hand navigating or just want to chat? GoDo, our AI assistant, is always in the corner. And if you need a break, there are a few games built right into the site.

Getting started

Fill out your profile, add a photo, and write a short bio so people know who you are. Follow a few Thinkers to fill up your feed. When you've got something to say, request Thinker status and start posting.

That's thougTH. Come as a Viewer. Earn your voice as a Thinker. Share your ThougTH.

Inflation Might Be Here Sooner Than You Think: One Leaked Note Tells the Whole Story

What Is This Article About

A photo of a handwritten note got published this week. It belongs to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The note said to buy $5 to $10 billion of Japanese yen. This happened the same week the US and Japan jointly stepped into the currency markets, and the same week US debt crossed $40 trillion. This article covers what happened and what it could mean for your money.

What Is Happening

The US and Japan jointly intervened to prop up the yen. This is the first time the US has helped defend another country's currency in 28 years. Right around then, a photo leaked showing Bessent's note: buy $5 to $10 billion in yen.

That number is small. The currency market trades over a trillion dollars a day. $5 to $10 billion barely moves it. That's why some people think the leak wasn't an accident.

Why It Is Happening

Two theories. 

1) it's real, and the US is actually buying yen. 

2) it was leaked on purpose, to scare traders away from betting against the yen.                   

If traders believe the US will defend the yen, they back off, and the yen strengthens on its own. No real money needed.

There's also a bigger picture. 

The US wants three things at once: 

1) bring factories home

2) keep prices stable

3) keep the economy strong. 

You can only really have two. A weaker dollar helps factories come home, but it makes prices go up. Since bringing factories home and keeping the bond market stable are non-negotiable, price stability is what gets sacrificed. In plain terms, more inflation may be coming.

What Has Caused This

US debt jumped from $34.5 trillion to $40 trillion in about two years. No recession, no pandemic, no war caused it. That's just the current pace of borrowing.

Meanwhile, the Fed leaned toward a strong dollar. Markets didn't like it. Stocks fell, gold and Bitcoin fell, and the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.27%, the highest since 2007. Higher rates make the $40 trillion debt cost more, which means more borrowing, which pushes rates even higher. It feeds itself.

Japan also owns more US debt than any other country. When the yen gets too weak, Japan sometimes sells US Treasuries to defend it. If Japan sells a lot at once, US borrowing costs could spike. So the US helping Japan isn't about friendship. It's about protecting itself.

How Will This Affect Americans

A weaker dollar makes imported goods cost more. But it also helps US factories compete, which could mean more US jobs over time.

Higher long-term rates affect mortgages, car loans, and business borrowing. And if this leads to more money printing down the road, that usually means more inflation, which eats into savings.

How Will This Affect the Rest of the World

If the yen snaps back too fast, it can trigger a "carry trade unwind." That's when investors who borrowed cheap yen to buy other assets have to sell everything to pay it back. This caused a fast global selloff in August 2024. It doesn't stay contained to Japan, it hits markets everywhere.

What Should a Normal American Expect

Expect more uncertainty. The theory is that markets may need to fall further before the government has cover to step in with stimulus. This has happened before, in 1998 and 2007, though those two played out very differently afterward.

This is a theory, not a guarantee. Nobody knows the timeline. Could be months, could be years, or it may not play out this way at all.

What Should They Do to Mitigate the Impact

Think of your money in two buckets: things that can be printed (dollars, bonds) and things that can't (gold, real assets, commodities). When governments print more money, the second bucket usually holds up better.

A few practical steps: keep an emergency fund, don't keep all your savings in cash if you're worried about a weaker dollar, and stay diversified. Even the experts don't know exactly how this plays out.

Future Action Items

Watch a few things: the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields, the strength of the yen, and the price of gold. If yields rise while stocks fall, pressure is building. If gold rises while the dollar falls, that's a sign investors are hedging against a weaker dollar. Also watch for any shift in tone from the Fed, from fighting inflation to supporting growth.

Disclaimer:

I am not a financial advisor. This article is based on my interpretation of news that mixes reported events with speculation, and reflects my own personal views. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research or talk to a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions.

Ever open Disney+ and just stare at the screen for twenty minutes? Same here. So I made a list of my top 10 Disney picks, all streaming online right now. Watch them in order or skip around, but don't skip any. Every one of these will hook you fast.

Warrior Met Coal's Q2 Earnings: Record Volumes, a Beat and Raise, and a Stock That's Actually Cheap

Numbers below are current as of the evening of August 5, 2026, right after the call. Warrior reported results after the market closed, so prices are still moving.

What Is This Article About

Warrior Met Coal reported its second quarter 2026 earnings today. I'll cover what was said on the call, what went right, what went wrong, then do the math on the valuation. I'll end with my own take on whether it's worth buying. This is not financial advice, just my own reading of the numbers.

What Was Discussed in the Q2 2026 Call

Here are the numbers:

CEO Walt Scheller said Blue Creek, the mine Warrior spent years and over a billion dollars building, is now fully operational. The heavy construction spending is done. Management raised full-year volume guidance, now expecting 13.0 to 14.0 million tons of coal sales, up from the prior range of 12.5 to 13.5 million. The board also kept the quarterly dividend at $0.08 a share.

What Are the Wins

Revenue and earnings both beat estimates by a wide margin. Here's the short version:

The balance sheet is also a real strength here:

What Are the Losses

Not everything in this report was clean.

In plain terms: the company sold more coal, but a smaller share of each benchmark dollar made it into Warrior's pocket.

Zoom out and last year is a good reminder of how fast this business can turn:

Analysis

Trailing P/E:

That's a reasonable multiple, and it's inflated by a rough 2025.

Forward P/E:

Price-to-sales:

For context on scale:

What Did I Understand From Today's Call

Blue Creek went from being a multi-year cash drain to an actual profit and cash flow contributor, exactly as management said it would.

Is This a Good Company to Invest in Right Now

As a company, Warrior looks genuinely well run. It's a low-cost producer with a strong balance sheet, a newly completed growth project that's now paying off, and management that just raised guidance instead of walking it back. The net cash position stands out.

As a stock, you're not overpaying for perfection here. You're taking on real commodity risk. Met coal prices swing with global steel demand and Chinese trade policy. Last year's results show how fast this business can turn:

Final Thoughts on Whether to Invest or Not

If you already own this stock, today's numbers back up the Blue Creek investment thesis. The mine is built, it's profitable, and the free cash flow is showing up on the balance sheet now instead of getting spent on construction.

If you're thinking about buying in fresh, you're not paying a story premium the way you would with SpaceX. You're paying a fair, arguably cheap, multiple for a well-run coal miner that just had its best operating quarter in years. The risk isn't the price you're paying, it's the commodity underneath it. Met coal prices can move against you fast, and this company's results will move right along with them.

Personally, I'd put this as reasonably priced, cyclical bet on a company that just proved its big growth project works. I'd want to see the price realization number stabilize and get a read on how China's import demand shakes out before sizing up, but this is a name I'd actually be comfortable starting a small position in rather than watching from the sidelines right now!

Disclaimer:

I am not a financial advisor. This article is based on publicly available earnings data and my own personal analysis and views. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research or talk to a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

SpaceX's First Earnings Call: A Trillion-Dollar Rocket With No Brakes

Numbers below are current as of the evening of August 4, 2026, right after the call. This was SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company, so there's no real earnings history to compare it to yet. Prices are still moving fast.

What Is This Article About

SpaceX went public in June 2026 in the largest IPO in history, and today it held its first ever earnings call as a public company. This article covers what was said on the call, what went right, what went wrong, and then does real math on the valuation, including just how big this company's price tag has gotten. It ends with my own take on whether it's worth buying. This is not financial advice, just my own reading of the numbers.

What Was Discussed in the Q2 2026 Call

SpaceX reported $7.81 billion in revenue for the quarter, up 92% from a year ago and well above the $6.93 billion analysts expected. The company is still losing money, but the loss shrank a lot. Net loss came in at $541 million, or 9 cents a share, much smaller than the 26 cent loss analysts had modeled and a big improvement from the $1 billion loss a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $3.5 billion, nearly double the $2.0 billion expected.

Starlink, the satellite internet business, passed 12 million subscribers and its connectivity segment posted $2.60 billion in adjusted EBITDA, ahead of the $2.41 billion expected. CFO Bret Johnsen said SpaceX is on pace to hit $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by the end of the year, and mentioned the company has already contracted an additional $6.7 billion in cloud services revenue that starts ramping in October. Elon Musk also said on the call that Nvidia will be SpaceX's exclusive supplier for its AI chip needs, tying the company's new AI infrastructure push to Nvidia's hardware.

Despite all of that beating expectations, the stock fell after hours. The reason given across most coverage was capital expenditures, SpaceX is spending an enormous amount of money building out Starship, Starlink, and now AI data centers, and that spending came in heavier than investors wanted to see.

What Are the Wins

Revenue beat estimates by a wide margin and grew 92% year over year. The loss per share was far smaller than expected, a sign the business is getting closer to breakeven. Adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled what analysts modeled. Starlink crossed 12 million subscribers and its profitability came in ahead of plan. On top of the financials, SpaceX locked in a large new cloud services contract worth $6.7 billion and set a public target of $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by year end, which, if hit, would be a massive jump from where the company sits today.

What Are the Losses

SpaceX is still not profitable. It lost $541 million this quarter, on top of a $4.28 billion loss in the first quarter of the year. Capital spending is enormous, and that spending spike is exactly what spooked investors and sent the stock lower after hours, even with a clean beat on nearly every headline number. Free cash flow over the last twelve months is deeply negative, around negative $19.8 billion, because the company is pouring money into Starship, satellite manufacturing, and now AI infrastructure all at once. The balance sheet also shows more debt than cash, about $30.6 billion in debt against $23.7 billion in cash, putting the company in a net debt position rather than a net cash position, which is unusual for a company this highly valued.

The stock itself has also had a rough couple of months. It IPO'd at $135 a share in June, spiked to an all-time high of $225.64 within days, and had fallen more than 45% from that high heading into today's report. Today's after-hours drop adds to that slide.

Analysis

This is where it gets interesting, because SpaceX doesn't fit neatly into normal valuation math the way a profitable company does.

Trailing P/E: Not applicable. SpaceX lost money over the last twelve months, so there is no meaningful price-to-earnings ratio to calculate. Any company that isn't profitable doesn't have a real trailing P/E, full stop.

Forward P/E: Analysts currently model SpaceX moving toward a small profit next year, which produces a forward P/E of roughly 190x. I'd treat this number with real caution. When a company is right at the edge of breakeven, tiny changes in the earnings estimate swing the P/E wildly, so a number like 190x is more of a reflection of "barely profitable" than a useful yardstick. Still, even acknowledging that, it signals the market is pricing in an extraordinary amount of future growth to justify today's share price.

A better measure here is price-to-sales, since the company isn't profitable yet. 

Using the after-hours market cap of roughly $1.56 trillion and trailing twelve-month revenue of $19.3 billion, that's a price-to-sales ratio of about 81x. For comparison, even the hottest AI software companies typically trade in the 15 to 25 times sales range. SpaceX is trading at multiples of that, on top of being a capital-intensive hardware and infrastructure business, not a software company with fat margins. On a forward basis, using next year's expected revenue, the multiple comes down to around 33x sales, still very rich by almost any standard.

Now let's talk about the market cap itself, because the number is genuinely hard to wrap your head around.

At today's after-hours price, SpaceX is worth around $1.56 trillion. Here's what that looks like next to some other numbers:

I think calling this valuation "ridiculously high" is fair. It's not that SpaceX isn't a great business, it clearly is, but the stock price has moved into territory where it's being valued like it already dominates AI infrastructure, satellite internet, and space transport combined, years before any of that is fully proven out.

What Did I Understand From Today's Call

The actual business performed well. Revenue beat, losses shrank faster than expected, Starlink is scaling nicely, and there's real, contracted demand for the new AI infrastructure push, not just a slide in an investor deck. That part of the story is legitimately impressive for a company only two months into being public.

But the stock reaction tells you the market had priced in near perfection, and heavy capital spending was enough to break that spell. This looks a lot like the AMD story from earlier today: a real beat, followed by a sell-off, because the bar was set absurdly high going in.

Is This a Good Company to Invest in Right Now

As a company, SpaceX is remarkable. It has no real competitor at its scale in launch, a fast-growing and increasingly profitable satellite internet business, and it's now stepping into AI infrastructure with actual contracts behind it, not just ambition. If you're evaluating the underlying business on its own, it's hard not to be impressed.

As a stock at a $1.56 trillion valuation, this is a much harder call. You are paying for years of flawless execution across three different businesses at once, launch, satellite internet, and AI infrastructure, while the company is still burning cash and carries more debt than cash on hand. The gap between where the stock trades and where the actual current financials would justify is enormous by my own math. That doesn't mean the stock can't keep climbing, momentum and story-driven stocks can stay expensive for a long time, but it does mean there's very little room for anything to go wrong.

Final Thoughts on Whether to Invest or Not

If you already own shares from the IPO, today's numbers were genuinely good, and there's nothing here that breaks the long-term story. If you're thinking about buying in fresh at today's price, understand you're not buying a value stock, you're buying a bet on Elon Musk and his team continuing to execute at a nearly impossible level across rockets, satellites, and now AI data centers, all while the stock already prices in a huge amount of that success happening. I'd also want to watch how the stock trades over the next few months as more lockup shares become sellable, since that alone could create pressure independent of how the business is actually doing.

Personally, this is not a stock I'd chase right after a first earnings report with this much valuation risk already baked in. If I wanted exposure, I'd rather wait and see how it trades through the lockup expiration later this year before deciding whether to build a position, and even then, I'd size it small given how far the current price sits from what the underlying numbers support today.

As Buffet would say, this stock for me goes into a Too-Hard pile! 

Disclaimer: 

I am not a financial advisor. This article is based on publicly available earnings data and my own personal analysis and views. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research or talk to a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Stock Market Volatility Is Coming. Here's How to Survive It.

What Is This Article About

This article breaks down my “ThougTHs” about Japan's currency, the yen. The yen just hit its lowest value in 40 years. This is not just a Japan problem. It is starting to touch American mortgages, stocks, and interest rates too. This piece explains what is going on, why it started, and what a normal person should do about it.

What Is Happening

The Japanese yen has crashed to its weakest level in four decades. Japan stepped in to stop the fall. They sold US dollars and used that money to buy back their own currency. This is called a currency intervention. It is a rare and drastic move.

Japan also happens to be the largest foreign owner of US government debt, known as Treasuries. When Japan sells dollars, it also ends up selling Treasuries. That sends shockwaves through the US bond market. US banks have already been told to prepare for more of this.

Why It Is Happening

For years, traders ran a strategy called the "carry trade." Here is how it worked. You borrow yen at a very low interest rate, close to zero. You convert that money into dollars. You put those dollars into US Treasuries, which pay a much higher interest rate. You pocket the difference.

This worked well for a long time because Japan's rates stayed low and the yen kept losing value against the dollar. But once the gap between US and Japanese interest rates got too wide, and the yen got too weak, the trade started to break down. Investors began rushing to sell yen-funded positions, which made the yen crash even harder.

What Has Caused This

Two things collided. First, the US fought record inflation in 2022 and 2023 by raising interest rates faster than almost any time in history. Second, Japan has dealt with decades of deflation, an aging population, and weak demand, so it kept its interest rates near zero just to keep its economy moving.

That created a massive gap between US and Japanese interest rates. Money flowed out of Japan and into US dollars to chase the better return. Over time, this pushed the yen lower and lower until Japan felt forced to intervene directly in the currency markets.

How Will This Affect Americans

When Japan sells US Treasuries to raise cash for its currency defense, it adds a flood of supply to the bond market. More supply pushes bond prices down and yields up. Higher yields mean higher interest rates across the board.

That shows up in daily life as higher mortgage rates, higher rates on car loans and credit cards, and more expensive borrowing for businesses. It also puts pressure on stock prices, since higher rates tend to make stocks less attractive compared to safer investments like bonds.

How Will This Affect the Rest of the World

Global economies are tightly connected. Japan is not the only country selling US Treasuries right now. Other nations are doing the same because they are dealing with their own inflation, often driven by rising oil prices. Demand for US bonds has dropped to a 10-year low.

This is a global chain reaction. One country's currency problem can push interest rates higher everywhere, which slows down borrowing, spending, and investment worldwide.

How Should a Normal American Citizen Be Prepared

Nobody needs to panic, but it makes sense to be alert. Expect more volatility in the stock market over the coming weeks. Expect interest rates on loans and mortgages to stay elevated or possibly rise further. This is a good time to understand your own exposure. Know if you have variable rate debt, know your emergency savings situation, and know how much of your portfolio is sitting in one place.

What Should They Expect

Based on the last time this happened, in 2024, the pattern tends to repeat. Japan intervenes, the yen bounces for a few weeks, and then it slides right back down because the intervention treats the symptom, not the root cause, which is the interest rate gap between the US and Japan.

There are really only two ways this resolves. Either the gap closes slowly, with Japan raising rates and the US lowering them over time, or it closes suddenly, which could trigger a sharp, fast downturn in markets. The next major checkpoint to watch is September 16th, when the Federal Reserve is expected to make its next interest rate decision.

What Should They Do to Mitigate the Impact

A few sensible steps: keep an emergency fund so you are not forced to sell investments during a downturn, avoid making big emotional decisions based on short-term headlines, stay diversified rather than concentrated in one stock or sector, and if you are planning to borrow money soon, like for a mortgage or car, factor in that rates may stay high for a while longer. Long-term investors historically have been rewarded for staying invested through volatility rather than trying to time an exit.

Future Action Items

Keep an eye on a few dates and signals in the weeks ahead: the Federal Reserve's September 16th meeting, any further emergency interventions from the Bank of Japan, movement in the US 10-year Treasury yield, and the dollar-to-yen exchange rate. These will show whether this settles down or escalates.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This article reflects my own personal views and interpretation of news, not professional financial advice. Please do your own research or speak with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment or financial decisions.

Met Coal: The Quiet Commodity That Could Lead the Next Run in Stock Market?

What is met coal

Met coal stands for metallurgical coal. It is also called coking coal. It is not the same as thermal coal, which power plants burn for electricity. Met coal has one job. It gets baked into coke. Coke is the fuel and the chemical agent that turns iron ore into liquid iron inside a blast furnace. Without coke, most of the world's steel simply cannot get made.

How is Steel Produced: Electric furnace versus blast furnace, and why coal still matters

Here is the part most people miss. There are two ways to make steel.

EAF is often called the "green" route because it skips coal. But EAF has a real weakness. It needs two things in large supply: clean scrap steel and cheap, reliable electricity. Right now, electricity demand is exploding, mostly because of AI data centers and rising cooling and heating needs. Power infrastructure starts are rising more than 21% year over year just to keep up. When power-hungry data centers, EVs, and factories are all bidding for the same electrons, power prices tend to rise. That makes EAF steel more expensive to run, right when the world needs more steel, not less.

Blast furnace steel does not compete for electricity the same way. It runs on coal and ore, which are priced in their own markets and are not tied to the electric grid squeeze. So as power costs climb, the old-fashioned coal-based route starts to look economically sensible again, not just for legacy reasons but on pure cost grounds. That is a real tailwind for met coal that most people are not pricing in yet.

Where met coal ends up

Steel is everywhere, and met coal is the hidden ingredient behind most of it.

Every tonne of steel made the traditional way needs roughly 0.6 to 0.8 tonnes of met coal, once you count both the coke and the PCI coal. So when you hear that a country is building infrastructure, you are also hearing a call on met coal demand, even if nobody says the word coal.

AI, data centers, and a new source of steel demand

The AI buildout has turned into a steel story too. U.S. data center construction starts went from $14.9 billion in 2023 to $77.7 billion in 2025, a 190% jump in one year. Spending through April 2026 alone hit $49.5 billion, nearly four times the pace from a year earlier. Moody's now projects $3 trillion in global data center spending over the next five years.

Data centers are not just racks and chips. Visit one under construction and steel is everywhere: framing, strut ceiling supports, conduit, piping, racks, cabinets, and wall panels. Add in the power plants, substations, and transmission towers needed to feed all that electricity, and you get a new, durable source of steel demand that was barely on the radar five years ago. New steel demand, even scrap-based steel demand, tightens the whole market and lifts the value of primary steel capacity that still needs met coal.

Coal as a critical mineral

The U.S. government made a formal move on this front. In May 2025, the Department of Energy designated coal used in steelmaking as a critical material under the Energy Act of 2020. Then in November 2025, the U.S. Geological Survey added metallurgical coal to the official 2025 Critical Minerals List, alongside copper, silver, uranium, and eight other materials. Critical mineral status is supposed to go to commodities that matter for economic or national security and whose supply chains are vulnerable, and that are essential to key products.

The U.S. is actually the world's second largest met coal exporter and already produces most of what it uses, so this designation will not fix a foreign dependence problem the way it might for something like lithium. What it does instead is unlock federal permitting speed, financing support, and political protection for domestic coal projects. Congress also made met coal eligible for the advanced manufacturing production tax credit under the 2025 reconciliation law, and the Permitting Council fast-tracked Warrior Met Coal's mines as a transparency project. This is the government putting its thumb on the scale for domestic met coal supply and for the steel mills that use it.

The US Steel golden share connects the dots

This is where the earlier news ties in. The U.S. government now holds a golden share in US Steel as part of the Nippon Steel buyout. That share gives Washington veto power over plant closures, headquarters moves, and any move of production out of the country. At the same time, Congress extended production tax credits to metallurgical coal, the raw material these older integrated mills need for ironmaking. Nippon Steel has already reinvested $350 million into the coal-based ironmaking process at its Gary, Indiana plant.

Put it together and you get a government that will not let a legacy blast furnace plant simply shut down, paired with a subsidy that makes running that plant on coal cheaper. That is about as direct a policy tailwind for met coal demand as you are likely to find.

Global supply and demand, the last 20 years

China and India have driven coal demand for two decades, and China is now the swing buyer while India is the rising one. As you can see in the graph (chart1_top_importers_2024), China imported far more coal than any other country in 2024, with India a distant second and Japan third.

Supply versus demand for the decades ahead

Nobody can forecast 50 years of coal supply and demand with real precision, so the honest picture is a range, not a single number. As you can see in the graph (chart2_longterm_outlook), industry forecasts show met coal trade holding fairly steady in a base case, but dropping by more than half if the world moves fast toward net zero steel.

India, the new demand engine

India is where the growth story lives right now, since its steel sector imports 90% of its metallurgical coal and wants to keep expanding output. As you can see in the graph (chart3_india_imports), India's met coal imports are on a steady upward path, roughly doubling between 2025 and 2035.

India also has aggressive steel production goals, and most of that growth still runs through coal-hungry blast furnaces. As you can see in the graph (chart4_india_steel_targets), India aims to more than triple its current steel output by 2047.

Putting the case together

Here is the bull case in one place.

The other side of it

A fair case has to include the risks, because they are real.

Bottom line

The pieces line up better for met coal than for almost any other commodity right now. Steady India-led demand growth. A U.S. government actively protecting domestic coal-based steel capacity. Rising electricity costs pushing the economics back toward the old blast furnace route, right as AI adds a new source of steel demand. Two well-run, low-cost, shareholder-friendly producers sitting at the center of it.

This is a real, well-supported case for met coal doing well over the next several years. It is not a sure thing and I'm not a financial advisor, so treat this as the bull case laid out honestly, not as personal investment advice. It's worth weighing against the risks above, and maybe a conversation with a financial advisor, before sizing a position.